Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
Basketball Picks (+16118) 2380-2014 L4394 54%
NBA Picks (+12711) 1506-1253 L2759 55%
Top All Sports Sides (+5420) 1379-1204 L2583 53%
Football Totals (+4562) 173-116 L289 60%
NCAA-B Picks (+3589) 874-760 L1634 53%
Top MLB Money Lines (+2915) 81-48 L129 63%
NCAA-F Totals (+2798) 81-48 L129 63%
Top NHL Money Lines (+2274) 50-27 L77 65%
NFL Totals (+2039) 87-61 L148 59%
CFL Picks (+1536) 100-75 L175 57%
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
I'm not panicking about the Timberwolves losing two straight home games to the Nuggets. The Timberwolves have played better on the road in the playoffs. It could be because their young team feels less pressure when they're not expected to win.
Minnesota has been an underdog four times this postseason - twice at Phoenix and twice at Denver. The Timberwolves are not just 4-0 ATS in those games, but they won each of those games straight-up!
I see that pattern continuing here.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are elite players. They are due to play better. Meanwhile, Denver's Aaron Gordon is due for a huge regression.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are going to get their points. Just as Anthony Edwards will for the Timberwolves. But I don't see Gordon continuing with his unbelievable shooting. He's 16-of-19 from the floor for 84 percent during the last two games.
Seattle has much more star power this season. But it's going to take a while for the Storm to gel. The Lynx have improved, too, and are not getting enough respect with this high of a line.
The Lynx have a superstar, Napheesa Collier, and have improved their bench and defense. Their backcourt is more experienced with the additions of veterans Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman.
I have a lot of respect for Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve. Look for the Lynx to stay within the number here.
This total would make sense - if it were last year when Phoenix had the worst defense in the WNBA.
But while the defending champion Aces stood pat this season after having the second-best defense in the league last year, Phoenix has made many upgrades to fix its defensive woes.
The biggest move for the Mercury was hiring respected NBA assistant coach Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbets has an excellent defensive reputation having coached for the Magic and Cavaliers. Tibbetts and his staff really stressed and emphasized defense during practice and preseason.
The Mercury have enhanced their backcourt defense with the addition of Natasha Cloud, a two-time all-defensive team selection.
It wouldn't be surprising if the Aces struggle offensively early in the season having had off-season distractions and playing just one exhibition game. That wasn't against a WNBA team either, but the Puerto Rican national team in South Carolina in a festive atmosphere welcoming A'ja Wilson back to her college.
Las Vegas is the two-time defending WNBA champions. Phoenix had the worst mark in the league at 9-31 last season. But this isn't the mismatch you might think.
But the Mercury's strongest off-season move was hiring Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbetts is well-respected having been an NBA assistant coach for 12 years with the Magic, Trail Blazers and Cavaliers.
The Aces still could be celebrating their second straight championship. They were honored at the White House last week. The Aces only got to play one preseason game and it wasn't against a WNBA club. They played the Puerto Rico national team at South Carolina. That's not an ideal way to get ready for the season where every team will be sky-high to upset the Aces.
SERVICE BIO
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.